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Predictive modeling alone does not a solution make…

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Too often the conversation around predictive modeling begins and ends with the process of designing and building a model or series of models. The problem with this approach is that predictive modeling alone doesn't save money, reduce litigation, shorten claim durations, etc. unless it is packaged as part of a solution.

The solution utilizes predictive modeling as the first of three components to identify and refine the opportunity. The second component, deployment, translates and transfers the results of the predictive model as actionable information into the hands of the third component, the intervention. The intervention then leverages the information toward action that will impact outcomes. Together, the three components form a solution that drives efficiency and increases effectiveness by targeting interventions in a timely manner.

The second miss in the conversation around predictive modeling is the separation between the accuracy of the model(s) and the effectiveness of the intervention. The intervention's ability to leverage an opportunity is a function of the design of the intervention. Intervention design should coincide with model design, if not in time, in focus. For instance, the use of a medically based intervention suggests the need for modeling that is looking at medical management opportunities. A litigation or attorney involvement model would suggest the need for an intervention targeting the avoidance of circumstances that promote litigation or attorney involvement. Sounds logical, but too often concepts are developed in parallel without the appropriate coordination, resulting in a disconnect that will translate into a lack of impact.

Lastly, if intervention design and model design are in sync, it is imperative that an evaluation be done on the effectiveness of the intervention in addition to periodic assessments of the modeling. Every intervention should follow the traditional baseline, monitoring and outcomes assessment process of program evaluation.

  • Baseline – the starting point
  • Monitoring – consistent implementation
  • Outcomes assessment – goal attainment

Predictive modeling is a powerful tool when utilized appropriately. But modeling is not a standalone silver bullet. Focusing as much attention on the design and evaluation of the intervention as on the predictive modeling will create a solution that adds real value to your organization or partnerships.

Are your partners thinking in terms of solutions?

Keith Higdon, SVP, Decision Support Services

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