A quiet catastrophe season may be the most dangerous signal of all

As organizations enter the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, much of the attention is understandably focused on forecasts, storm tracking and seasonal outlooks. But one of the biggest risks this year may not be an active storm pattern. It may be the false sense of security that can emerge when catastrophe activity appears quiet. 

History has shown that calm periods can be misleading. While a lack of early-season activity often creates confidence that the worst may be behind us, catastrophe risk doesn’t disappear during quieter stretches. In many cases, it evolves, shifts and reappears in unexpected ways. 

That was one of the clearest lessons from 2025. On the surface, last year may have seemed less eventful than recent catastrophe seasons. Hurricane activity generated fewer surge events and lower claim volumes than some previous years. Yet catastrophe activity didn’t stop. Instead, organizations faced a steady stream of disruption from a broad range of events occurring across different regions and throughout the calendar year. 

In many respects, the story of 2025 was not about hurricanes at all. Severe convective storms, flooding, winter weather, wildfires and other secondary perils accounted for the overwhelming majority of catastrophe losses. According to Sedgwick’s 2026 Catastrophe Season Playbook, non-hurricane perils represented 99% of insured losses in 2025, underscoring just how much the catastrophe landscape has changed. 

This shift highlights a challenge many organizations continue to face. Catastrophe planning has historically been centered on major hurricanes and concentrated periods of activity. Today’s risk environment looks different. Events are occurring in unexpected places, affecting regions not traditionally viewed as catastrophe-prone and creating disruption outside historical peak seasons. 

At the same time, the pace of catastrophe activity continues to accelerate. During the 1980s, billion-dollar weather disasters occurred approximately every 82 days. In 2025, the average interval between billion-dollar disasters had fallen to just 10 days. The result is a more persistent risk environment, with less recovery time between events and greater pressure on organizations, response partners and claims operations. 

This is why a quiet start to the season can be problematic. When catastrophe activity appears subdued, preparation efforts can lose momentum. Resources may be redirected. Response plans may remain untested. Organizations may assume they have more time than they actually do.

But catastrophe readiness is not something that can be activated overnight when a major event appears on the horizon.

As Andy McCallum, Sedgwick’s Vice President of Specialty Operations, notes in the 2026 Catastrophe Season Playbook, quiet periods never last long and often leave organizations with very little time to react when conditions change. Preparation delayed today can become a significant operational challenge tomorrow. 

The reality is that catastrophe readiness has become less about predicting the next storm and more about building resilience for an increasingly unpredictable environment.

Organizations must be prepared not only for hurricanes, but also for the broader range of weather-related and catastrophe-driven events that continue to reshape the risk landscape. The question is no longer whether catastrophe activity will occur. The question is whether response models, resources and operating plans are prepared for the way catastrophe risk is evolving. 

As the 2026 season unfolds, the most effective organizations will not be those that simply monitor the forecast. They will be the ones that use every period of calm as an opportunity to evaluate preparedness, strengthen response capabilities and identify potential vulnerabilities before an event occurs. 

A quiet catastrophe season should never be mistaken for a low-risk season. In today’s environment, readiness remains the most important predictor of resilience.

Learn how to prepare for the season ahead

Sedgwick’s 2026 Catastrophe Season Playbook explores the changing catastrophe landscape, emerging operational pressures and practical strategies organizations can use to strengthen readiness before the next major event occurs. Download the playbook to learn how leading carriers and claims organizations are preparing for catastrophe season in 2026.